April 27, 2009
April 23, 2009
April 22, 2009
Grains: Signs of Green Shoots? Soy To Outperform (EMM).
Grains have continued to trend higher in recent weeks, as a combination of forces remained supportive. The rally in equities helped push grains higher, meanwhile supply and demand fundamentals have also been supportive. Indeed, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s prospective plantings report (released in March) showed that US corn and wheat planted acreage will decline by 1% and 7% respectively in 2009, meanwhile soybean planted acreage is expected to increase by only a marginal amount. From a technical perspective, all three grains look promising, and only a break below key levels of support would make us change our outlook. Moreover, we continue to see soybeans outperforming, with corn following closely, and wheat is expected to be the laggard - a view we first promoted in early February.
Front-month soybean has rallied quite impressively in recent weeks, posting gains of 19% since the beginning of March. It is currently testing resistance at USc1,040/bushel - a level we had highlighted previously. From a technical perspective, soy could find it difficult to break above this level in a sustained fashion in the short term, as equity markets have weakened slightly and the relative strength index has also entered overbought territory. As such, we would not be surprised to see a short-term retracement, possibly back to the USc975-1,000/bushel area. Over the medium term, however, both the technicals and fundamentals point to further upside. Indeed, trendline support comes in at about USc880/bushel, and if this level holds, the uptrend could continue for several months. Furthermore, we anticipate a global production deficit of 4.9mn tonnes in 2009, up from our previous estimate of 1.8mn, on the back of supply problems emerging from South America and still-strong demand from China. This will likely result in a further drawdown of global ending stocks to 48mn tonnes in 2009, from 53mn tonnes in 2008, and will see the stocks-to-use ratio decline to 21.3 from 23.1 in 2008, indicating market tightness. As such, we believe that both the technicals and the fundamentals point to further gains for soy over the medium term.
Front-month corn posted gains in March, and the technical picture is still encouraging in our view. Currently trading at USc392/bushel, we see an incipient uptrend forming, with trendline support underpinning the price action at USc380/bushel. If this support line is respected, we would expect to see further gains over coming the months. While the fundamentals are not as supportive for corn as they are for soy, continued drought in Argentina, combined with slightly lower US production will also be price supportive. We anticipate global corn production to outstrip global consumption, which should lead to a global surplus of 11mn tonnes in 2009. This should help bring global ending stocks to 140mn in 2009, up from 128mn tonnes in 2008. Furthermore, the stocks-to-use ratio is also expected to rise to 18.0 in 2009 from 16.6 in 2008. Despite the increase in market slack, both global inventories and the stocks-to-use ratio are still low by historical standards, which implies that an uptrend could yet be forming despite improving supply and demand balances.
Front-month wheat is also in an uptrend, although again, the price action is not as robust as it is for soy from a technical perspective. Currently trading at USc526/bushel, we do not rule out a retest of trendline support around the USc510/bushel area. The fundamentals for wheat are not very supportive of upside price action either. Indeed, we anticipate a production surplus of 42.8mn tonnes in 2009, which should see inventories rise to a six-year high of 162mn tonnes, and the stocks-to-use ratio increase to 25.2 from 19.3 in 2008. This wheat surplus (mainly driven by large increases in production in China, US and Russia) will likely keep a lid on prices. However, similar to corn, both global inventories and the stocks-to-use ratio are still low by historical standards.
Given these dynamics, we expect soy to outperform with corn to follow closely and wheat to lag the pack. However, we do acknowledge that the technical picture is slightly less convincing for corn and for wheat that it is for soy, and a break below support would suggest further downside for corn and wheat. As such, we will continue to monitor the technical picture for clues, but remain optimistic until key support levels are breached.
Commodities: Short Term Risks Playing Out (EMM).
Despite our optimistic outlook for commodities in recent weeks, last week we flagged up cautious views for copper and oil, and yesterday, we highlighted downside risks for the whole complex on the back of a potential move in the Dow and the US dollar. This view has played out - although slightly faster than we had anticipated - with a correction in the Dow weighing on the CRB index, which broke below two-month trendline support at 225 to trade at 217 at one point yesterday. A continued selloff in equities could see further losses to the 210 area, and possibly even below the key 200 level, although we do not think we are there just yet. Such a move would also be supportive of safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
Copper Retracing
We have been cautious copper since April 6 when we first believed the three-month contract was overbought. Indeed, we reiterated this view last week ( see: 'Commodities: Still Bullish Copper and Oil, But Cautious Short Term', April 16). Copper has now retraced by 10.2% from its April high of US$4,925/tonne, and we suggest a minimum downside target to support at US$4,237/tonne. In the event of a break of this level, we would expect further losses to support at US$4,000/tonne. A risk, however, stems from the fact that the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) will be releasing its annual copper supply and demand estimates for 2009 later this week which could have a large impact on prices. On the one hand, estimates that point to a continuation of an oversupplied market would be negative and could see a quick move to the US$4,000/level. On the other hand, suggestions of a sharp supply response by refiners could see copper hold up. As such, while we see copper correcting further, we highlight risks to this outlook. Furthermore, a sustained correction in copper would also weigh on commodity stocks such as Rio Tinto, which could see the stock retrace to support around the GBp2,000 level.
Brent Flirting With Support at US$50/bbl
Front-month Brent Crude dipped below support at US$50.00/bbl yesterday, although today it is up slightly, trading at US$50.40/bbl. Our view is that as long as the contract trades above US$50.00/bbl, the risks are to the upside, and we target the US$55.00 /bbl level. In the event of further weakness and another push below US$50.00/bbl, we highlight support at US$48.00/bbl, and US$42.00/bbl. The US$42.00/bbl level will act as massive support, and we would only reassess our optimistic view on oil on a break below this level. Given the price volatility, the oil market continues to be a trader's market for now.
Grains: Bouncing Off Support, But Risks Remain
Last week we highlighted the risk of short-term retracements to support among grains, particularly with regards to corn and wheat ( see 'Grains: Signs of Green Shoots? Soy To Outperform', April 15). These concerns have since been validated with yesterday's sharp correction in the Dow weighing on prices. That said, we maintain our view that grains look promising on a medium-term basis, assuming that key levels of support are respected on a weekly basis.
Front-month soy has retreated from Friday's six-month high of USc1,051/bushel, at one stage today trading at USc1,020/bushel. Should further retracement occur, support exists around USc975/bushel. A weekly close below this level could presage further declines, but price action should be ultimately underpinned by trendline support at USc900/bushel. Indeed, we continue to view soy as the outperformer among grains, supported by solid fundamentals.
Front-month corn maintains its uptrend, and is currently bouncing off support around USc370/bushel. A break below medium-term support at USc370/bushel would be concerning. Meanwhile, the outlook for front-month wheat is slightly more negative, as it is currently testing support at USc508/bushel. We would look for a strong weekly close above trendline support from corn and wheat to retain our medium-term bullish view on these two grains. A weekly close below support would be a negative signal, and likely prompt us to reassess our bullish view.
Gulf Markets-Taking Stock: Key Views Update (EMM).
Gulf markets suffered fairly dramatic losses on Sunday and Monday, in line with global price action. That said, there are some positive signals from European markets this morning, Brent crude is back above the psychologically key US$50/bbl level (just), and the monthly charts of both global and MENA stock markets still show potential. We hold to our bullish views for now, but highlight key support levels. However, while we still like Abu Dhabi, Egypt and Qatar more than Oman and Bahrain, we now add Saudi Arabia to the latter group.
In spite of this week's losses, the Abu Dhabi Securities Market (ADSM) likewise remains within its short-term uptrend channel. The market closed on April 21 at 2,567, with technical support coming in at around the 2,500 mark; we would look for a break through this level to alter our short-term bullish stance.
If sentiment towards Abu Dhabi equities holds up, we could see a raft of IPOs towards the end of 2009. Tom Healy, chief executive officer of the ADSM recently told Bloomberg Television: 'We are told by bankers that there's something in the order of 40 that are committed to going public. The timing is something we can't predict because you have to have an improvement in the market and not just a temporary improvement.'
Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All-Share Index (TASI) has fallen below its upward trend channel, which is not a good sign, although it is likely a reflection of bad news for SABIC, the petrochemicals giant which is the biggest stock by market cap on the TASI. SABIC announced Q109 losses of SAR974mn yesterday. If the market can digest this news and bounce back by the end of the day, then the overall uptrend could resume. We would look for a strong close above 5,000 tonight, however.
For Egypt, which has been closed due to the Easter holiday, the losses on opening this morning have not been too dramatic, which is a good sign. The uptrend is in place, and there is additional resistance-turned-support at 4,800.
Focus On Qatar
Though Qatar's Doha Securities Market (DSM) has sold off heavily, falling 1.43% and 4.29% on April 20 and 21 respectively, it is still holding above short-term technical support. The DSM closed on April 21 at 5,273, while support comes in at around 5,250. Until and unless the index falls through this level, we remain bullish over the short-term time horizon. Looking further ahead, while there is still considerable uncertainty about the medium- to long-term direction of global, and particularly US equity markets, we remain as yet unconvinced that the DSM's low of 4,195 (in early March) will be remembered as the bottom of the bear market.
The banking sector appears to have stabilised following the combination of Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) equity injections, as well as the QIA's purchase of local banks' investment portfolios (which totalled QAR6.5bn across the sector). First quarter earnings reports painted an upbeat picture with the emirate's three biggest banks ( Qatar National Bank , Commercial Bank of Qatar and Doha Bank ) all posting year-on-year increases in net profit.
April 21, 2009
OR : Le risque baissier domine (Chart's).
Graphiquement, l'enfoncement de la zone à 900 dollars (ancien support devenu résistance) a maintenu les cours de l'or sous pression et devrait constituer un premier obstacle à très court terme. Cependant, un bref franchissement de ce niveau n'est pas à exclure dans les jours qui viennent mais ne constituerait pas pour autant un signal acheteur majeur. Au contraire, tant que le niveau des 933.3 dollars n'est pas enfoncé, les cours resteront sous pression et le risque qu'une ultime jambe de baisse se mette en place restera fort. Viser alors un retour sur 865 dollars et 835 dollars en extension.
FMI : la crise financière mondiale coûtera plus de USD4.000 mds (DJ).
WASHINGTON (AFP) -- Le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) a revu à la hausse mardi son estimation du coût de la crise financière mondiale, qui se montera selon lui à plus de 4.000 milliards de dollars. Le FMI parvient à ce chiffre de 4.054 milliards de dollars en additionnant les pertes liées à des dépréciations d'actifs financiers américains (2.712 milliards), européens (1.193 milliards) et japonais (149 milliards). En d'autres termes, ce coût est celui qu'ont dû et vont devoir supporter l'ensemble des institutions financières, en raison notamment de la baisse de la valeur des actifs qui garantissaient leurs crédits, comme l'immobilier. Cette estimation, qui couvre la période allant depuis le début de la crise financière à l'été 2007 jusqu'en 2010, a été publiée dans le dernier "Rapport sur la stabilité financière mondiale" du Fonds.
La précédente estimation, qui datait de janvier, ne prenait en compte que les actifs américains, et se montait à 2.200 milliards de dollars. "Le système financier mondial reste soumis à très rude épreuve, à l'heure où la crise s'étend aux ménages, aux entreprises et aux banques, tant dans les pays avancés que dans les pays émergents", a indiqué le FMI.
"Le ralentissement de l'activité économique pèse encore plus lourdement sur les bilans des banques, dont les actifs continuent de se dévaloriser, compromettant ainsi leurs ratios de fonds propres et l'ouverture de nouveaux crédits", a ajouté l'institution multilatérale.
April 20, 2009
MAROC TELECOM : Trading range (Day By Day).
MOYEN TERME: Les cours rebondissent depuis un point bas significatif. Notre avis est haussier à moyen terme depuis le 18/02/2008.
COURT TERME :Notre précédent avis était négatif. La configuration graphique a changé et notre scénario est modifié. Les prix évoluent dans un trading range. Nous sommes désormais neutre à court terme. Nous attendons le dépassement d'une des deux bornes (13,53 EUR/ 14,47 EUR) avant de préciser notre nouvelle anticipation.
MAROC: Tension sur les liquidités, «Une situation qui devrait s’aggraver» (L'E.)
Plus de 11 milliards de DH de déficit:Le marché monétaire, au cours du 1er trimestre, a enregistré un déficit important de liquidités comparé à l’an dernier. Les besoins sont estimés à 11,1 milliards de DH compte tenu d’une légère contraction des avoirs nets extérieurs. Ainsi le volume moyen quotidien des échanges a marqué un repli de 13,21% par rapport à 2007 pour s’établir à 2,86 milliards de DH.
Déficit persistant malgré les interventions de Bank Al-Maghrib. Rappelons que dans ce contexte d’assèchement des liquidités, BAM a allégé les trésoreries bancaires en abaissant de 3 points à 12% le taux de la réserve monétaire. Ce sont, ainsi, près de 11 milliards de DH de cash qui ont été injectés dans le système. Les interventions de la Banque centrale sont d’autant plus justifiées que l’inflation de 2008 s’est établie à moins de 4% en glissement annuel. Elle s’est maintenue dans les mêmes proportions, depuis le début de l’année (3,8% à fin février). «Cette évolution démontre la forte hausse des prix des produits frais», est-il indiqué au sein de Orange Asset Management (OAM). Cependant, pour BAM, la tendance fondamentale des prix reste orientée vers la baisse. En témoigne, le rythme de progression de l’inflation sous-jacente qui est passé de 3,3% en décembre 2008 à 1,3% en février. Au niveau des adjudications pour les bons du Trésor sur le marché primaire, l’évolution, contrairement à celle du marché monétaire, est plus que positive.
En effet, les adjudications du Trésor ont plus que triplé en l’espace d’un an. Leur montant est passé de 8,05 milliards de DH en 2008 à 24,5 milliards en 2009. Par segment de maturité, les demandes des investisseurs se sont principalement concentrées sur le court terme enregistrant 65% du total. Les bons à 52 semaines totalisent plus de 31,6% des soumissions globales. Alors que les titres à 2 ans occupent 19,6% de part sur ce marché. Les obligations à 26 semaines, 5 ans et 21 jours présentent respectivement des parts de marché de 18,91, 15,04 et 14,29%. Les soumissions de 13 semaines arrivent en dernier avec 0,61% du marché. «Cette concentration des investisseurs vers des maturités courtes s’explique par leur anticipation d’une prochaine hausse des taux», est-il précisé au sein d’OAM. A ce titre, le taux moyen pondéré des soumissions est en hausse par rapport à la même période de l’an dernier. Il atteint des niveaux variant entre 3,48 et 3,79% pour les maturités à court terme. Pour le moyen et long terme, le TMP se situe entre 3,84 et 4,07%.
En revanche, les taux du marché secondaire ont évolué sur un trend baissier durant le 1er trimestre, compte tenu de l’anticipation de la baisse du taux directeur comme nous l’annoncions dans notre édition du 23 mars. La baisse est manifestée pour le court terme entre 15 et 32 points et plus avancée pour les maturités de 2 et 5 ans: entre 19 et 20 points. Le recul est plus accentué pour le long terme, en effet, le taux des maturités de 10 ans chute de 31 points et celui des 20 ans de 35 points. Par ailleurs, «le Trésor ne lève que sur les maturités à court terme pour ne pas émettre des bons à long terme qui constituent une référence pour les taux des crédits immobiliers».
Autre indicateur du comportement du baromètre des liquidités: le budget d’investissement du Trésor. Celui-ci s’élève à 180 millions de DH en hausse de 20% par rapport à 2007. S’y ajoute une charge supplémentaire de 26,5 milliards de DH pour les dépenses de fonctionnement qui passent à 150,8 milliards de DH. A noter qu’à elles seules, les charges des fonctionnaires s’établissent à près de 49,7 milliards de DH. Concernant le marché de titres de créances négociables, les émissions, selon Maroclear, se sont essentiellement portées sur les billets de trésorerie pour 650 millions de DH, les bons de sociétés de financement pour 1,8 milliard de DH et les certificats de dépôt pour 300 millions de DH.
En termes de perspectives, les conclusions d’OAM sont sans équivoques. Selon ses analystes, la situation de manque de liquidités «risque fort de perdurer, voire même de s’aggraver compte tenu de l’environnement défavorable». Malgré la baisse du taux directeur, une hausse des taux reste envisageable, selon OAM. Elle se situerait entre 0,25 et 0,50%.
