Fitch Ratings-London-7 November 2012: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Morocco's Long-term
foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-', Long-term local currency IDR at
'BBB', and Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F3'. The Outlook on the Ratings is Stable.
Fitch has also affirmed Morocco's Country Ceiling at 'BBB'.
Fitch expects these ‘twin deficits’ to begin narrowing this year, supported by recent and prospective measures to reduce fuel subsidies, and supporting the Stable rating Outlook.
Assuming a rebound in agriculture, and some recovery in the eurozone, Fitch expects GDP growth to rebound to 5% by 2014, in line with performance in the previous decade, supported by new
investment projects. The main risk to the forecast is a worse than expected performance in the
eurozone, especially given Morocco’s’ much more limited room to support domestic demand
now compared with in 2009.
Fitch forecasts the current account deficit should gradually
improve primarily thanks to lower oil prices (forecast at USD100/barrel in 2013 and 2014
from USD110/barrel in 2012) as well as a pickup in exports.
In accordance with Fitch’s policies the issuer appealed and provided additional information to
Fitch that resulted in a rating action that is different than the original rating committee
outcome.
foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-', Long-term local currency IDR at
'BBB', and Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F3'. The Outlook on the Ratings is Stable.
Fitch has also affirmed Morocco's Country Ceiling at 'BBB'.
Fitch expects these ‘twin deficits’ to begin narrowing this year, supported by recent and prospective measures to reduce fuel subsidies, and supporting the Stable rating Outlook.
Assuming a rebound in agriculture, and some recovery in the eurozone, Fitch expects GDP growth to rebound to 5% by 2014, in line with performance in the previous decade, supported by new
investment projects. The main risk to the forecast is a worse than expected performance in the
eurozone, especially given Morocco’s’ much more limited room to support domestic demand
now compared with in 2009.
Fitch forecasts the current account deficit should gradually
improve primarily thanks to lower oil prices (forecast at USD100/barrel in 2013 and 2014
from USD110/barrel in 2012) as well as a pickup in exports.
In accordance with Fitch’s policies the issuer appealed and provided additional information to
Fitch that resulted in a rating action that is different than the original rating committee
outcome.
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